Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.382730 4.065856 4.828546 5.739819 6.795440 7.976142 9.392864
2025-03-23 2.396853 3.309249 4.449327 5.962174 7.898491 10.273696 13.384956
2025-03-30 1.735915 2.711423 4.056188 6.006128 8.714585 12.290622 17.305325
2025-04-06 1.297601 2.266577 3.724347 6.006860 9.403806 14.169431 21.230879
2025-04-13 0.992644 1.923402 3.439836 5.982164 10.000075 15.936530 25.149389
2025-04-20 0.862488 1.823429 3.495759 6.459157 11.371808 18.930592 31.087884
2025-04-27 0.718461 1.656910 3.399482 6.656972 12.307932 21.339280 36.353695
2025-05-04 0.613983 1.535891 3.353180 6.919027 13.360703 24.006267 42.222671
2025-05-11 0.501600 1.366040 3.178297 6.913298 13.939329 25.940890 47.065861
2025-05-18 0.391300 1.166992 2.902154 6.664820 14.041424 27.068980 50.655999
2025-05-25 0.298720 0.979611 2.607756 6.324542 13.917229 27.773679 53.561118
2025-06-01 0.242996 0.868634 2.456553 6.249047 14.277791 29.348305 58.059073
2025-06-08 0.192691 0.756981 2.284162 6.110524 14.519035 30.769191 62.480336
2025-06-15 0.173563 0.733704 2.326001 6.462263 15.808272 34.263358 70.917878
2025-06-22 0.146551 0.674265 2.260702 6.552481 16.554629 36.780012 77.734430
2025-06-29 0.121678 0.611588 2.171546 6.568936 17.139981 39.026151 84.197086
2025-07-06 0.100180 0.551479 2.074574 6.547920 17.635584 41.127400 90.519673
2025-07-13 0.095432 0.557808 2.178444 7.065477 19.416799 45.970857 102.456903
2025-07-20 0.084025 0.530131 2.169954 7.279957 20.509429 49.466088 111.948262
2025-07-27 0.075404 0.511229 2.185637 7.563239 21.794116 53.452468 122.648386
2025-08-03 0.062974 0.466757 2.104007 7.557164 22.371315 55.969063 130.529013
2025-08-10 0.049014 0.404740 1.942725 7.288873 22.261532 56.982531 135.390495
2025-08-17 0.036788 0.342629 1.760695 6.921247 21.848768 57.284675 138.779458